2024 Presidential Election: 270 Electoral Votes Needed to Win
Interactive Map Tracks Biden-Trump Electoral Vote Count
Polling and 2020 Margins Used to Guide Forecast
The 2024 presidential election will require a candidate to secure 270 electoral votes to emerge victorious. An interactive map is now available to track the projected electoral vote count between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. The map uses polling data and 2020 election margins to generate its forecast. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin has been rounded to provide an estimation.
The interactive map allows users to visualize the current probabilities of each candidate winning individual states. Circles positioned further to the left indicate a higher likelihood of a Biden victory, while circles to the right indicate a higher likelihood of a Trump victory. The map also includes a chart that visualizes the current chances of each candidate winning the national popular vote.
According to the map, there is a 12-in-100 chance that Biden wins the national popular vote by 10 percentage points. 538's forecast is based on a combination of polls and other factors.
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